ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan accounts for approximately 48% of individuals living in extreme poverty throughout the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region. The World Bank disclosed this statistic in its October 2026 regional economic update. The bank assessed poverty based on the international threshold of $3 a day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at that level increased by 6.4 percentage points. This surge made Pakistan the primary contributor to extreme poverty within the MENAAP area.
Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen together represent another 47% of those living below the $3 threshold across the region. Alongside Pakistan, these three countries make up about 95% of the extreme poor in MENAAP. Currently, roughly 14% of the global population living in extreme poverty resides in this region, second only to Sub-Saharan Africa. MENAAP remains the only region where poverty levels surpass pre-pandemic figures and continue to grow.
At a higher threshold of $4.20 daily, used for lower-middle-income economies, Pakistan’s poverty rate also worsened. The proportion of people below this level increased by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25, reaching approximately 48% in 2024 compared to 44.7% in 2018. The regional analysis attributes this decline to the COVID-19 pandemic, the floods of 2022, high inflation, currency depreciation, and prolonged economic adjustments, all of which have contributed to the deterioration of poverty indicators in the country.
Poverty levels climb after multiple economic shocks
A new household survey conducted earlier in 2026 led to a significant revision of regional poverty estimates. Pakistan’s updated data increased MENAAP’s projected 2024 extreme poverty rate from 11.8% to 14.4%, adding approximately 21 million people to the estimated number of those living in extreme poverty across the region. By September 2026, MENAAP remained one of only two global regions with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, with Sub-Saharan Africa being the other.
Despite a return to positive economic growth, Pakistan’s poverty levels remain high. The latest projections indicate GDP growth of 3.7% in fiscal 2025-26 and 3.8% in fiscal 2026-27. Real GDP per capita is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation is forecasted at 7.1% for 2026, with an increase to 8.2% in 2027. Therefore, inflation in 2027 is expected to be higher than in 2026, even as the economy continues to expand.
Reclassification impacts regional poverty comparisons
The 48% figure also reflects a statistical adjustment that has influenced regional comparisons. In September 2025, the World Bank shifted Pakistan and Afghanistan from South Asia into the MENAAP reporting group. According to Pakistan’s government, this administrative change did not alter the country’s geographic identity or income classification. Khurram Schehzad, the finance minister adviser, explained that the new grouping affected regional poverty figures because Pakistan’s large population was included in MENAAP calculations, thereby impacting the regional poverty share presentation.
The October update also highlighted weaker economic conditions across MENAAP in 2026, projecting a 2.1% contraction after a 3.3% growth in 2025. Ongoing conflicts, disruptions in energy, logistics, and trade have hindered economic activity in several countries. Nonetheless, developing oil-importing nations, including Pakistan, are expected to be relatively resilient, with an estimated growth of 4.3% in 2026. Rising food and energy prices continue to strain household purchasing power across multiple countries within the region.